Luck vs bad luck

Let's have a look at how different players can experience a draw with exactly the same conditions during short periods of time in Texas Holdem poker, one of the casino games that are possible to beat if you are skillled enough.

The purpose of this chapter is not to teach the correct and incorrect way to play Texas Holdem poker. Instead we will look at a few simulated examples that show what the results might look like for different players who make a draw with exactly the same mathematical conditions and where the aim is to make a profit, i.e. where the odds to succeed and the pot odds are advantageous. We are in other words interested in finding out how the odds might behave depending on the margins created by the number of outs, the size of the bet and the pot odds. We are also interested in finding out how situations with the same conditions but with different results might affect the different players as far as their temperature is concerned.

When we study short periods of time the expected theoretical result in the long run (EV-expected Value) and the practical result can vary a lot. It is important that we are aware of these variations in the game if we want to avoid playing on tilt. You play on tilt when you start playing carelessly due to long periods of bad luck, restlessness or other things that might have a negative influence on the result..

You will notice that the results will vary a lot more with marginal odds compared to when you have good odds to make a draw.

In the presented simulations we neglect the starting hands and the action before the flop as well as implicated odds (profits made after a possibly successful draw). In other words - we ONLY look at the profits made with this specific draw. In order to make it simple we say that the the player acts last in every round. We also assume that the hand is winning if the draw is successful. You should also be aware that a negative does NOT mean that the draw is incorrect. The odds has always been there to support us. Instead we want to get an insight into the risks we expose ourselves to by making marginal draws and if it might be better to pass ( say no bid) rather than taking a chance where it is necessary to play many hands in order to make a profit.

For all the simulations we assume we have seen the flop and the next card - the turn card - is the card that will create our hand. All the calculations are in other words besed on the turn card!

The programme that is being used here is very simple. If you want a description - click here.

Profits and losses are of course influenced by more factors than the draws presented here. The fact that we isolate single separate draws and focus on only these is because it is an easy way to show how the variations for different players, where the results might cause certain winners to overestimate their ability and the other way round. Some players might underrate their ability. All this in spite of the fact that all the players have made a draw with exactly the same mathematical conditions.

Make some odds and pot odds simulations

Simulations of drawing hands for 1 player >>>

Simulations of drawing hands for 10 players >>>